Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Holy Variance Batman!

I only played around 200 hands yesterday, but five of them were for full $100 stacks. I lost three, and won two, so I ended up down a little over $100 for the day.

The two winners:

I'm in the BB with Pocket Tens. There is a limper, and then the SB raises it up to $6.50. I would classified him as Loose-Aggressive, with stats of 34/14/4.0 (VP$IP - Voluntarily put $ in the pot, PFR% - PreFlop Raise %, Aggression Factor). That is kind of a big raise, so it smelt a little fishy. I could have easily re-raised here, but decide to call with position.

The Flop is [7s] [2s] [2c]. Pot is $14, and he leads out with a full pot size bet. Again, that smelt a little fishy. I decided to call again. Probably a mistake. What do you think?

Pot is now at $42. The Turn card is another 2, the [2d]. This time, he led out for half pot of $21. I obviously don't put him on the last two or Pocket 7's. Pocket 7's wouldn't lead full pot on the turn. And I didn't really think a high pocket pair would bet so big PF because he would want action. So I pushed all-in. He thought for a long time, and finally called. The River was Q, and the pot was shipped my way. Prima doesn't show mucked hands, so I don't know what he had. I'm not sure if I played this hand optimally. What do you think?

The next winning hand was me with Aces. I'm in the BB again, and UTG, who has me covered, raises it up to $4. His stats were 25/17/3.5 - Tight Aggressive. It is folded to me, and I re-raise to $13. He calls.

Flop is [Qc] [7h] [2h]. (I have the Ace of hearts). Pot is at $26.50. I lead out for $17. He calls. Hmmmm. I don't like that. And I am out of position. Damn.

Pot is now at $60. Turn is [7c]. So now the board pairs, and there are two flush draws out there. I think that the seven is a good card for me. It pretty much rules out pocket 7's for his hand ( I don't worry about running into quads). So I have to put him on either QQ, 22, or a draw. I guess JJ or KK is possible too. AQ of hearts is a definite possibility.

This was probably a mistake, but I checked here. I guess for pot control, and to see what he did. He fires a $6 bet into the $60 pot! This small bet convinced me that he was on a draw, more than likely AQh. So I check-raised to $40. After much though, he called. The river was the [8c]. I put in my last $34. He called, and the pot was shipped my way. Again, I don't know what he had, but I'd bet a dollar it was AQh.


Now the losing hands. One was a total suckout, one was with me pushing a Nut flush draw on the flop really hard and being up against a set, and the last was pretty much a coinflip when the money went in.

Not much to say about the suckout. I had Pocket Kings on the button and raised and got both blinds to call. Flop was [Qc] [8c] [4d]. SB led out for $2, BB called, and I re-raised to just under pot. Just the BB called. Turn was [9h]. He checked, I bet 2/3 pot, and he called. River was [7h]. He pushed his last dollars in and I called and saw the pot shipped his way when he showed 65o. He called all of that with only a gutshot. Nice hand sir.

The next hand was a pretty boneheaded play by me when I look back at it. Mainly because the guy was a nit. His stats were 13/3/0.7. His stats showed that he was so passive, that I should have realized when he raised me that he had something. Folded to me and I raise with A6 of hearts. Flop is Q, 8 5 with two hearts. He checked, I put out a continuation bet, and he check-min-raised. DING DING DING!! That should have been the warning bells going off in my head with the tight passive nit min-raising me. Instead I re-raised big, he called, the turn was a blank, he checked, and I pushed in. He obviously called with his 8's, and the river wasn't one of my 7 outs.

The last hand sucked, mainly because I hadn't flopped a set all day. Not too much of a read on this guy. His stats were 25/15/1.5 after about 40 hands or so. He hadn't gotten too crazy. He has $92 and I cover

I'm in the BB with [7c] [7d]. Villain is on the button and it is folded to him. He raises to $3 (3x BB raise). SB folds, and I re-raise with my 7's to $9.50. He calls.

Pot is at $19. Flop is [7h] [8h] [9h] and I lead out $12 (2/3 pot size). Villain re-raises to $48, leaving him $35 behind.

I know this is a dumb question, cause I think I know what the answer is, but I gotta push all-in, right? I can't really fold this, right? If he has a made hand (st or flush), I still have a 35% chance to fill up. If he has one heart I win 70%. An over pair with a heart and I still win 63% of the time. A combo draw for him, and its pretty much a coin flip.

So I pushed. He had [6h] [6d]. (So i was just barely ahead, like 58%). The turn was a 5, and the river didn't fill me up. Oh well.



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