Damn You Random Number Gen.... Oh Never Mind

I was all prepared to write a post complaining to the random number generator about my lack of cards lately, specifically the number of sets I've flopped. But things started turning around.

From Saturday morning through Monday morning, I played 850 hands, and flopped only one set. And to top it off, I lost that hand. Flopping sets on monotone flops sucks. Dude called my re-raise with TPTK and the nut flush draw and hit the flush on the turn. I can't complain about the play there, since I would have played it the same way.

I started off on a bad note this weekend on the poker playing front. Saturday morning I ended up getting stuck about $300. I lost two nice sized pots to my opponent rivering their inside straight draws. And then the above set hand, plus another hand where I donked off some chips chasing a flush draw. But things started to turn around. I made a few dollars back later on in the day. Then made a few dollars sunday morning. And I just finished up a quick lunch session where I have now erased that $300 loss and I am now up $200 since then! Monday's Rock! I have flopped two sets today, both of them with pocket Queens. I won a smallish type pot with one, but won a nice sized pot with the other when someone called my bets with QJ. Thank you very much! I am up just over $400 for the day, which includes a few bonus dollars at WillHill.

I also played some more at the 200NL level. I started out by buying in for $150, and by the time I left, I worked that up to $360. There was one player there who had a VP$IP (voluntarily put money in the pot) of over 70%. I made about $100 of off him on a few hands. Then I made a gutsy call to win a $200 pot.

I had pocket Aces in Late Position. It was folded to me, and I made a standard raise to $8 (4xBB). Only the SB called. The flop came something like 279 with two diamonds. He checked, and I bet about 3/4 pot and he called. Turn was a non diamond blank, and he checked, and again I bet 3/4 pot and he called. Pot was now around $100. The River brought the 3rd diamond. He led out for $50. It definitely looked like he could have hit a flush. But I called anyways and he showed pocket 5's. That's probably a -EV play over the long run, but I trusted my instinct, which told me I was still ahead (though I just called instead of raising, just in case :P).

I've been feeling really good about my play lately. My confidence is rising. I have been making some really good reads, and for the most part, they are right on the money. One thing that I have been doing really well is pouncing on someone who shows weakness. The thing that has really helped me with that is realizing the power of position in NL hold 'em. Say you face a raise from a player and you call with position. A lot of people will fire of a continuation bet on the flop, but there are not a lot of people who will fire a second bullet on the turn if they don't have anything. Or they will fire that second bullet, but it is a real weak bet. Being able to spot weakness like this is such a great skill to have, as you can steal a lot of pots here. It doesn't even really matter what cards you have (though of course, it would be nice to have a little something or at least some outs in case you are called).

Cheers!