Tuesday, April 04, 2006

Looking at my SNGs

I've been running pretty bad at SNGs lately, so I decided to dig into the hand histories and figure out why I haven't been making any money playing them. Was it bad beats? Was I card dead? Did I play really bad? Just unlucky?

I came to the conclusion that I am card dead. Very card dead. Unbelievably card dead.

I put hands into three groups.
Group 1 hands are: AA - TT, any AK - AJ
Group 2 hands are: 99-88, Any AT & KQ, and any 2 suited broadway cards (KJs - JTs) not listed above
Group 3 hands are: 77-22, and any two broadway cards, suited or unsuited not listed above.

The chance of getting a hand in Group 1 is 5.85%. Getting a hand in group 2 or better is 10.65%. And you will get a hand in group 3 or better 17.0% of the time.

So at the last 11 SNGs (all $15+1 turbos at Stars) I had 1 first place, and the rest were out of the money. A pretty bad streak. This is what I found:

SNGPlace# HandsGroup 1Group 2Group 3Best Hand

Total # of hands: 422
Total in Group 1: 14
Total in Group 2: 13
Total in Group 3: 20
% of hands in Group 1: 3.32%
% of hands in Group 2 or better: 6.40%
% of hands in Group 3 or better: 11.14%

I should get group 1 hands 5.85% of the time. I only got them 3.32% of the time. Only 1 hand out of 30, and it should have been 1 hand out of 17. Pretty big difference.

I got AA 3 times (twice in the SNG I won). KK once, QQ zero, JJ once, TT once. Pretty pathetic if you ask me.

So that is what I am blaming my bad run at SNGs on. Hopefully things will turn around soon.


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