Monday, November 26, 2007

Super Duper Hot Streak

I had one of my best weekends ever over the Thanksgiving Holiday. But what is most surprising, is that I only played a total of 5 hours and 1800 hands.

I only played 5 hours because I also picked up Call of Duty 4 for the PC on Friday. Instead of continuing to play against the mega donks that showed up this weekend, I wanted to play COD4. How sick is that? Running super hot, and then deciding to play something else. I probably could have got in an extra 6 or so hours this weekend. Oh well, it was fun, and I probably would have lost money instead, heh.

Here is a graph of Thursday through Sunday

My Poker EV graph isn't as crazy as you would expect it to be. You would think that with running this hot, my Actual Showdown Winning line would be a lot higher than my Expected Showdown Winning line. But it is only $300 higher.

(This graph also shows Wednesday nights poker play. I ended up even at the end of the night after being down $400)

One thing to note, is that I only flopped 6 sets all weekend. SIX! And still won all that money. I was dealt 150 pairs, saw a flop with 98 of them. Eleven sets would have been average.

Here are some hands from the weekend. First the big winners at 200NL
Some donk raises small and pretty much everyone calls, so I call too. Swool is a regular, and I was afraid he had the nut flush. But there is no way I am folding the 2nd nuts here.
Holy Crap, I won a coin flip! AKs vs QQ against a regular and I flop the nuts!
I flop a flush draw and hit on the turn. A 33/6 dude has two pair.
I 3-bet a regular with AA. He 4-bets and I shove and he calls with AQ. Woot!
A passive 28/5 guy flopped a set a 4's against me, but I hit my gin card on the turn. A cooler for him, but he could have played it a lot better.
AA vs QQ against a 55/15 donk.

Then there were a bunch of standard pots from half stack donks. I had people calling my all-ins or pushing against me with top pair/crap kicker, bottom pair, a straight on flush boards, etc...

A couple big 100NL hands:
I trap a 85/17 donk and he overbets pushes all-in on the turn drawing dead.
An 18/12 nit regular plays it really really bad. I gave him reason to fold PF, on the flop, and on the turn, but I still got his stack.
Definitely scared money here. I didn't put him on KK, that's for sure. I flop mid pair and a flush draw, and trip up on the turn.

A couple other standard hands, like KK vs AK all-in PF and my hand holding up, etc....

And here are the big losing pots for me.
This table had a couple donks and was very passive. I usually raise with 76s there, but open limped because of the table conditions. What do you think of my push on the flop? I flop bottom two pair, and the SB leads out, with the donk flat calling. I put the donk on a flush draw, and the SB on a jack or something like that. It turns out NDHawg folded Ax of spades, so he had the nut flush draw and folded the winning hand. The donk was better off than I thought, with his top pair plus the flush draw. After the money gets all-in, it was a coinflip, and I lost this one. Oh well. I got most of that money back from him later on.
This hand confused me. Tygerlily was the donk at the table, running at 51/20. I knew I was ahead of him, but I was confused about what Jimmy had. I probably should have bet the turn, but I decided to check and see what the others would do. When Jimmy folded to Tyger's bet, I knew I was ahead. Tyger hits one of their 10 outs. Boooo.
I own this over-agro 33/21 donk, and he gets rewarded on the turn after all the money gets in AA vs TT.

There you go. If I don't play any more poker this month, I will finish with my Best Month Everâ„¢! But I want to hit the top Iron Man status, so I need to get 200 FT points every day the rest of the month.


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At 4:57 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wow. That is one very hot streak. Lets hope your "return to mean" is a gentle process.

Remember, to run this hot you'll need to run bad to compensate. So stick playing solid poker if and when this happens or you'll end up dumping back all your profits and more!

All the best...

PS. You're not the only one who thought the weekend was full of "thanksgiving" whens the next US public holiday?

At 10:01 AM , Blogger cmitch said...

very nice run. I love graphs like those.

At 1:24 PM , Blogger PokerFool said...

Thanks for the comments folks.

And cmitch, thanks for all your help. Reading your blog has really improved my game.


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