Wednesday, October 10, 2007

I'm due for a post

I've had the content for this post stored up for a while, but poker is kicking my ass so bad now, that I just haven't felt like taking the time to write it up. Usually by now I have a Monthly report up, but I'm not even going to bother with it for the September review. I lost over a grand in the cash games. Thankfully I made a few decent cashes in some MTTs, so I only lost a couple hundred overall. Factor in rakeback, and I still made money!

This graph shows it all. It is my PokerEV graph from September 1 until a few days ago. The Blue line is my actual showdown winnings. The red line is what my showdown winning should be. I'll use an example to describe it. Say you have a full $100 stack against someone who also has a full $100 stack. You get it all Pre-flop with AA vs KK. You are an 80% favorite. 80% of the time you win $100. 20% of the time you lose $100. (100 * 0.80) + (-100 * 0.20) = $60. That is your EV (Expected Value), or Skalansky bucks.

If I lose that AA vs KK hand, my red line would be at +$60, but my blue showdown winnings line would be at -$100.

So what does this mean? It means I am running really bad. Really really really bad. The difference between those two lines is $1350. Over 10,000 hands that is brutal. It comes to about 12 BB/100.

October is going a little bit better than September. I'm only down about $100 or so after about 3,000 hands. I'm still getting pretty unlucky though, so it is amazing that I am only down that much. Here are a few hands from the last couple days.

Hand 1: I open-raise 53s from the button (kind of marginal, but ok in position). Flop is 9h 5h 5c. The decent TAG Big Blind leads out, and I raise. He re-raises, and I push. He has Ah Jh, and of course hits a heart on the river.

Hand 2: I have AK and just call a PF bet from a LAG (Loose Aggressive). Flop is AQx. He has AQ. Hard to get away from these types of hands against a LAG

Hand 3: Again I call a raise from another LAG with AQ. Flop is AJx. He has AJ. Same story as above

Hand 4: AA against a 23/1 guy and he flops a set on a KJ3 board. (I have a hard time folding Aces against bad players).

Hand 5: Half stack calls my PF raise with J5s and chases his flush, which hits on the river.

Hand 6: Idiot min-bets UTG, and a bunch call, so I call in the BB with T7o. Flop is 689 rainbow. Ding! I lead out and idiot raises and we get it all in. He has J9o. Turn is a Ten, River a Queen.

Sorry to turn this into a bad beat post. Just venting a little bit. We all go through downswings. I'm just wondering when mine is going to end.


On a lighter note, I am planning on playing in one of the events at the Canterbury Park next week. October 18th, the $300 NL event. If any of you Minnesotaites are planning on playing, let me know.


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At 3:26 PM , Blogger Drizztdj said...

I thought about playing in the Omaha tourney, but the starting times are no good for me.


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